Superforecasting

  • by Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
  • Narrated by Joel Richards
  • 9 hrs and 45 mins
  • Unabridged Audiobook

Publisher's Summary

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful

one of the best books I listened to

good use of history and examples, very straightforward language and easy to understand, concept conveyed
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- QIU

book presents a new way of thinking

I enjoyed the audiobook. very easy to grasp the key points on how to reach good judgement. how our approach to forecasting and analysis needs to change to include more aggregation and more variables.

gives insight on the good judgement Project and the outcomes.

few key messages for professionals:
1) consult across sectors
2) aggregate
3) use a base score
4) incrementally improve forecasts and prediction and regularly review works
5) test the validity of data
6) don't fall for pundits :)
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- Flavia A. Popescu

Book Details

  • Release Date: 29-09-2015
  • Publisher: Audible Studios